What Does the Strait of Hormuz’s Closure Mean?

{
  "authors": [
    "Nur Arafeh"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "blog": "Diwan",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "The Iran War’s Global Reach"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "projects": [
    "Political Economy Program"
  ],
  "regions": [
    "Gulf",
    "Saudi Arabia",
    "United States",
    "United Arab Emirates",
    "Iran",
    "Kuwait",
    "Qatar"
  ]
}

Commentary

Diwan

What Does the Strait of Hormuz’s Closure Mean?

In an interview, Roger Diwan discusses where the global economy may be going in the third week of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

By Nur Arafeh

Published on Mar 19, 2026

Invalid video URL

Roger Diwan is vice president at S&P Global Energy and heads a dedicated research team that provides integrated energy advisory to the financial sector. Recently, Diwan sat with Nur Arafeh, who co-leads Carnegie’s Political Economy Program focused on the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. Their discussion addressed the repercussions of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has raised oil prices and created major concerns about inflationary pressures worldwide as well as fears of a slowdown in the international economy.

About the Author

Nur Arafeh

Fellow, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Nur Arafeh is a fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, where she is co-leading the program on the political economy of the MENA region. Her research focuses on the political economy of reconstruction, private sector development, business-state relations, food insecurity, and peacebuilding strategies.

Recent Work

Commentary
Oil and Geopolitical Stability
- Nur Arafeh
Research
Arab Diaspora Business Communities in Egypt
- +4
  Maya Chehade, Marie Bassi, Duaa Abuswar, …

Gulf Saudi Arabia United States United Arab Emirates Iran Kuwait Qatar

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Diwan

Commentary
Diwan
A Military Balance Sheet in the U.S. and Israeli War With Iran
In an interview, Jim Lamson discusses the ongoing regional conflict and sees an unclear picture when it comes to winners and losers.
Michael Young
Commentary
Diwan
Lebanon Needs a New Negotiating Strategy with Israel
Unless Beirut lowers expectations, any setbacks will end up bolstering Hezbollah’s narrative.
Mohanad Hage Ali
Commentary
Diwan
Egypt’s Discrete Role in the Ceasefire with Iran
Cairo’s efforts send a message to the United States and the region that it still has a place at the diplomatic table.
Angie Omar
Commentary
Diwan
Realism and the Lebanon-Israel Talks
Beirut’s desire to break free from Iranian hegemony may push it into a situation where it has to accept Israel’s hegemony.
Michael Young
Commentary
Diwan
The United States and Iran Have Agreed to a Two-Week Ceasefire
Spot analysis from Carnegie scholars on events relating to the Middle East and North Africa.
Michael Young

More Work from Diwan